BJ Penn versus George St. Pierre Predictions

Call me crazy, but I sort of miss the earlier days of MMA when all we had were one or two fights to really look forward to. In today’s world, we get bombarded with so many dream fights, it literally becomes mentally exhausting. There is just so much to think about. We have win/loss percentages, grappling improvements, striking improvements, training partners, and coaching staff to consider. These are truly tougher times. However, we now have one fight that stands above the rest so much so, that it brings about a sense of nostalgia in more ways than one.

The next two UFC events will feature Forest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans for the Light Heavyweight belt, Nogueira will take on Mir for the interim Heavyweight belt, and two wrecking machines with aliases such as “The Axe Murderer” and “Rampage” will put it all on the line in UFC 92. UFC 93 is already making some fans salivate with possible match ups between Rich Franklin taking on Dan Henderson, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua pitted against Mark Coleman, Jeremy Horn fighting Rouismar Palhares, and the long awaited UFC debut of Dennis Kang.

With all that on our plates, why then is it that fans worldwide are looking past all these great scheduled fights as if these were the under cards? One look through the internet and you will see that as far as MMA is concerned, there is one fight that seems to be the most anticipated match up since Royce Gracie vs. Dan Severn. This fight has caused so many rifts that since the announcement by UFC President Dana White; the divorce rate has gone up! Go ahead and look it up. If it still hasn’t dawn on you that I am referring to Lightweight Champion, BJ Penn, moving up a weight class to challenge Welterweight Champion George St. Pierre for his belt, then it is time for you my friend, to crawl out from that rock you’ve been hiding under. Oh and did I mention that this will be a rematch?

Who will win?

From everything I read and everyone I spoke to, that is a question that is probably better not asked if you do not want to get caught in the crossfire. But I love controversy so what the heck.

I am an island boy through and through so naturally I’m rooting for BJ Penn but for the sake of this article, I will try my best to be neutral and remain objective.

B.J. Penn is pound for pound one of the best in the world. With his new dedication to the sport, this man has the ability to dominate both weight classes. He has respectfully fought at 205, is a legend at age 29, and has beaten some of the best including Matt Hughes, Takanori Gomi, Renzo Gracie, and Sean Sherk. His strengths are his excellent boxing skills and a legendary ground game. He has great flexibility, which allows him to do amazing things from his back. One of his strongest weapons is his timing. His only weakness that everyone loves to point out is his cardio. However, the latest reports indicate that he is no longer relying on pure talent alone and is working hard on his conditioning. I wonder if he has improved on his wrestling and takedown defense as it is the only other missing link I can see.

GSP is one of the most athletically gifted people on the planet. In dismantling Hughes and Fitch in his last few fights, he’s proved he also is one of the pound for pound best. GSP is a master fight technician who finds his opponents’ weaknesses and tailors a fight plan to exploit that weakness. He is a well rounded fighter mainly because he does not train in a true MMA camp per se. Instead he trains at different gyms with professionals of singular arts such as wrestling, boxing, kickboxing, and BJJ. This type of focus oriented training specifically isolates a perceived flaw and works to make improvements. With wins over Josh Koshcheck, Sean Sherk, Karo Parysian, Matt Hughes, Frank Trigg, and of course BJ Penn, he is highly unpredictable and one of a few strikers that likes to shoot. He loves to put grapplers on their backs with his explosiveness. It is very difficult for opponents to find a weakness to exploit however, BJ did dominate him standing up.

How will they win?

The first time these two gladiators met, GSP won a highly controversial decision, but the fact remains that Penn inflicted more damage to GSP. In fact, a bloodied GSP had to be admitted into a hospital immediately after the fight. On the other hand, the loser left without so much as a scratch. Many have argued that if it wasn’t for GSP’s superior and repetitive takedowns of the Hawaii native, the fight would have been in BJ’s favor. In fact GSP never delivered any significant damage once he took Penn down. Without a doubt, Penn dominated the stand up battle however; the judge seemed to have placed a higher value for the takedowns.

What GSP needs to do in order to win is to first understand why he lost the stand up aspect to BJ. And the reason for that is because of BJ’s impeccable timing. BJ timed his jabs to catch GSP in mid-combo. GSP always seemed too focused on putting together his attacks that he never saw a counter attack coming. GSP should fake an attack, wait for BJ to throw his jab and then immediately counter with his speed. Another thing that GSP needs to do, should BJ not find an answer to his takedowns, is to gain a dominant position on the ground and utilize a ground and pound attack. The judges may not be so kind this time around and award GSP a win by putting BJ on his back without capitalizing.

What BJ Penn needs to do in order to secure a victory is to first work on his sprawl. GSP took him down at will and even as a black belt; he could not catch GSP with a submission. He should continue to pick apart GSP with his jabs but this time follow up with a power shot. The jury is still out on whether or not BJ’s conditioning is improved however if it has, he should not only look for timed counter punches, but to also keep the pressure on and strike from inside the pocket.

Prediction: BJ Penn, Split Decision. Dana White, Headache. (But that is for another article.)